UNFOLDING ALUMINA PRICE CORRECTION. Amid Deteriorating Fundamentals

SUMMARY

1. Alumina spot prices have fallen to four-month lows amid declining refining costs, plunging LME prices, and increasing alumina production that has outpaced demand.
    

2. World metallurgical alumina production is up… % y/y in the Jan-Apr 2023 period, while demand has increased by only… % y/y.
    

3. China remains set to drive the world’s alumina market to its…
    

4. Booming bauxite demand from China (to feed its alumina production expansions) is buoying more bauxite mining in…
    

5. We expect alumina prices to fall further ahead and toward the $… per mton zone.