Trump’s tariff threat is psychologically bullish MW P1020 & US VAP premiums, LME price falls $40 per mton

SPECIAL ALERT! – US MW P1020 & VAP PREMIUMS.
 

1. SPECIAL ALERT! – US MW P1020 & VAP PREMIUMS. PSYCHOLOGICALLY BULLISH MW P1020 & VAPs: Trump pledges a 25% tariff on Canada & Mexico, negotiations begin.

President Trump has pledged a 25% tariff as soon as January 20, 2025 on all products from Canada & Mexico. So far, markets seem to be skeptical about the actual imposition of these Tariffs. However, if the Tariffs were to be imposed, the theoretical impact on the US MW P1020 premium would be that…

2. LME price retreats $40 per mton as range-trading conditions prevail between the $2,500-2,750 per mton zone.

LME Cash aluminum prices closed the session down 1.6% or $… per mton, at $…

3. China’s aluminum price continues to test technical support.

SHFE front-month aluminum prices closed today’s session marginally up at…

4. RERUN: ALERT! – ALUMINUM PRODUCTION. ALUMINA PRICES HIT SMELTING: Rusal to curtail 250k mtpy of smelting capacity amid higher raw material prices.

For more details, please see HARBOR’s “ALERT! – Aluminum Production” released yesterday.

5. ALERT! – EUROPEAN BILLET. THE TRUMP EFFECT: Bearish expectations for billet premiums in 2025.

To see our full European Billet Market Intel and Premiums assessment, subscribe to HARBOR’s specialized “European Billet Intelligence” reports.

6. LME Cash–3M contango remains uneconomic for financing deals as tightness persists after December (bearish P1020 premiums).

The Cash-3M contango widened to $… per mton (a 4.5% annualized yield) from yesterday’s contango of $…

 

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