Executive Summary
1. LME prices remain unable to pierce the $2,700-2,750 per mton cyclical resistance zone. LME prices tested in February a 32-month high of $… per mton as speculators accumulated the biggest net long position in three years amid hopes of stronger world aluminum demand and…
2. We continue to believe that LME prices are likely to fall back toward $… per mton and test levels as low as $.. per mton, given that:…
3. LME prices remain expensive relative to the world’s smelting cost curve and energy prices. A… % plunge in alumina spot prices since December has lowered the world’s average smelting cash cost to a seven-month low of $…
4. For 2025, HARBOR continues to expect LME prices to average around $… per mton, before increasing in 2026 toward $…