LME Price Trend Still Bullish but Due for a Pause

 
  1. LME prices are up… % y/y to near three-year highs amid strong physical and speculative buying. In the last twelve months, LME aluminum prices have rallied by… 
     
  2. LME prices above $… per mton appear unsustainable at this point in the cycle. Technically, the next resistance target for LME prices stands around $…
     
  3. Under our base scenario (…% odds), we expect LME prices to average $… per mton in 2021 and $… per mton in 2022.
     
  4. Under our upgraded upside forecast scenario (…% odds), we are now factoring in the possibility that LME prices could indeed test levels as high as $… per mton in the next few months, averaging $… per mton this year and $… per mton in 2022. 

 

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