Special Note: HARBOR’s Daily Aluminum Commentary will not be published on Thursday and Friday (December 19-20, 2024) due to Holiday Season festivities.
1. LME Cash price falls further below the key $2,500 per mton level. Breakdown confirmation would significantly increase the odds of a price fall toward $2,350 per mton.
LME Cash aluminum prices closed at a two-month low of $… per mton, falling by 0.5% or $… per mton from yesterday. Prices closed at the lowest level since…
2. China’s aluminum price falls to fresh two-month lows.
SHFE front-month prices closed at a new two month low of… yuan per mton. Prices initially fell to a fresh two-month intraday low of…
3. ALERT! – US MW PREMIUM from HARBOR’s Pricing Unit. PREMIUM REACTS TO TARIFF THREAT: MW spot premium jumps to the highest since May 2023.
As anticipated, MW spot premium spikes almost… cent/lb to 19-month highs as a reaction to President Trump’s threat of a 25% Tariff on US imports of Canadian aluminum, wider LME contangos and elevated LME prices.
4. ALERT! – BRAZIL. HEADWINDS: Brazil’s billet premiums decline to as low as $320 per mton.
Brazil’s billet premiums decline to $… per mton on oversupply and as offshore billet suppliers aggressively compete for market share.
5. RERUN: ALERT! – MATING SEASON SERIES – FINAL UPDATE. ONCE BITTEN, TWICE SHY: Brokers shy away from 2025 big scrap positions, pricing up 2 pp.
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6. LME Cash-3M contango remains wide and supportive of financing deals (supportive for P1020 premiums).
The Cash-3M contango narrowed marginally to $… per mton (a 7.0% annualized yield) from $… per mton previously amid ample metal availability. The Cash–January contango narrowed to $…