Executive Summary:
Destocking of the significant surplus of around 345 kmton of aluminum cansheet in the North America brought on by an over-buying of both cansheet and empty aluminum cans is well advanced. The accumulated surplus will fall to 175 kmton by the end of the year, and will likely reach completion in 2024 as it reaches 120 kmton. As destocking ends in 2024 we see a 3%-5% per year demand growth rate kick in from the new lower baseline amid favorable aluminum fundamentals vs PET. Most of the demand growth will initially benefit US domestic production over imports. Long-term contracts will keep conversion prices relatively stable over the medium term with can body stock increasing around 3%, can end stock increasing just under 2%, and can tab stock rising a little over 3%.