1. SPECIAL ALERT! – CHINA ALUMINUM. Effective December 1, 2024, China will cancel the 13% VAT rebate (approx $… per mton) on exports of aluminum flat rolled products and aluminum extruded products. In our view, the announcement testifies of China’s willingness to negotiate economic/trade deals with President-elect Trump. In our estimate, the face value implication of the announcement will not materially alter China’s aluminum exports or imports, but will raise the expected underlying LME aluminum price range by around $… per mton, lower the underlying SHFE aluminum price range by around $… per mton, and raise Chinese FRP/Extrusion conversion prices and/or lower Chinese profit margins by a total of around $… per mton.
2. LME price spikes… % as market overshoots after China cancels its export rebate on aluminum semis. Short-term range-trading conditions persist, but China’s export rebate policy shift is expected to raise the underlying LME aluminum trading range by around $… per mton, from $…
LME Cash aluminum prices rallied by 5.5% or $.. per mton, closing at a one-week high of $…
3. China’s aluminum prices dipped to a new one-month low following today’s Ministry of Finance export rebate removal for aluminum products.
SHFE front-month aluminum prices closed today’s session up by 0.7% at…
4. MATING SEASON SERIES– EU WIRE ROD. MATING SEASON SERIES: 2025 annual EC rod premiums up as much as $…
EU full 2025 contractual premiums increasing between $…
5. ALERT! – EUROPEAN BILLET. SOFTENING CONTINUES: European billet spot premium below $… across the board.
To see our full European Billet Market Intel and Premiums assessment, subscribe to HARBOR’s specialized “European Billet Intelligence” reports.
6. ALERT! – EUROPE SCRAP. FREE FALLING: More output cuts hitting the market as demand plunges.
For more details, subscribe to HARBOR’s specialized “Europe Scrap Intelligence” reports.
7. ALERT! – US SCRAP PROCESSING. SORTING TAKING OFF? US scrap processing and sorting economics improve further.
For more details, subscribe to HARBOR’s specialized “US and Mexico Aluminum Scrap Intelligence” report.
8. SPECIAL ALERT! – CHINA SCRAP. MORE COMPETITION COMING: China relaxed aluminum scrap import restrictions kick in.
For more details, subscribe to HARBOR’s specialized “US and Mexico Aluminum Scrap Intelligence” report.
9. ALERT! – US ROLLING MILL. INDUSTRY CLUSTER FORMING: Kloeckner to build mega service center next to ADI in Columbus
For more details, subscribe to HARBOR’s specialized “Aluminum Rolled Products Intelligence” Report.
10. LME Cash–3M contango tightens to one-month lows, far-end contangos to two-year lows (bearish P1020 premiums).
The Cash-3M contango closed the week tightening to a one-month low of $…