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Aluminum Market Forecast and Industry Outlook Reports

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Outlook & Forecasts

HARBOR offers a clear and candid qualitative and quantitative description of the competitive landscape of the aluminum market. We provide our clients with valuable intelligence and data on the forces and players that move the aluminum industry, as well as detailed aluminum market outlook and industry price forecasts. Whether you are an aluminum end-user, producer, merchant, investor or regulator; our industry data, market insight, outlook and forecasts will provide you with a strategic edge on the aluminum market.

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Get up to Date Aluminum Market Forecasting From HARBOR.

At HARBOR, we are a market intelligence firm that specializes in the aluminum industry and its supply chain. While other firms research numerous commodities, our entire focus is only on aluminum. Deep and across. We gather, develop and analyze aluminum industry data and market intelligence across the supply chain and world regions to provide our clients with the best understanding of the competitive landscape and outlook.

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Why is Aluminum Market Intelligence Important?

Access to accurate aluminum market research and trends is critical for those who work in industries that rely on the production and sourcing of aluminum products. Daily aluminum prices can shift, and if you don’t have access to up-to-date aluminum intelligence reports and market outlook, you can fall behind your competitors. With a market outlook and aluminum price subscription from HARBOR, you don’t have wonder if prices will go up or down. Our daily market and intelligence reports, as well as longer-term forecasts, provide comprehensive insights on factors that affect aluminum trading prices so that you stay ahead of the competition.

HARBORʼs consulting team has on average over 25 years of experience in the aluminum industry. Each Senior Consultant has several decades of specialized aluminum industry experience in upstream, downstream, and/or trading of aluminum. We have industry and market specialists for bauxite and alumina, primary aluminum products, flat rolled products, extrusions, scrap and secondary markets, cans, automotive, construction, industrials and consumer durables. We advise government agencies and render expert testimony in legal disputes and arbitration cases on matters related to the aluminum industry and its various markets.

Daily Market Insights and Trends Data

Explore Our Reporting Options to Stay Ahead of Industry Trends

We offer a variety of daily, weekly and monthly aluminum outlook report. Explore our reporting options below to stay ahead of industry trends.

A. Aluminum Intelligence Report (Monthly)

REPORT DESCRIPTION

An executive analysis of the aluminum market landscape and insight into who and what is driving the market. We identify the most relevant trends to expect, while also providing detailed forecasts for price, demand, supply, production costs and market balance, per country, for up to 5 years.

LATEST ISSUE: January 6, 2025

WEAK AND WITH A SOFT START. Demand Contraction Continues, Market Surplus to Widen

World aluminum demand is in contraction, and indicators point to a soft start in ea …

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B. Aluminum Production Intelligence (Monthly)

REPORT DESCRIPTION

Detailed analysis on global monthly primary aluminum production trends and figures—broken down by region, key countries, and key smelters. It provides updated intel on what market players are expanding, cutting, delaying or suffering disruption in production, why these moves are being made, and what to expect. Find valuable data on global aluminum output, capacity utilization and production costs.

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LATEST ISSUE: December 30, 2024

RECORD-BREAKING STREAK Third-consecutive record-breaking world aluminum production

World primary aluminum production achieved a new record in November …

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A. Aluminum LME Price Outlook Report (monthly)

REPORT DESCRIPTION

A special report that analyzes the outlook for London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminum prices. Identifies the most relevant price drivers, includes different views circulating in the market, and provides detailed monthly, quarterly and annual LME aluminum price forecasts, by the most accurate analysts, for up to 5 years under different scenarios.

LATEST ISSUE: December 18, 2024

Expecting Price to Fall Toward $… per mton Zone

As expected, LME prices have retreated toward $2,500 per mton after failing again t …

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A. Daily Aluminum Lme & World Product Premiums Intelligence (daily)

REPORT DESCRIPTION

An executive analysis of the most significant aluminum industry, market, price and premiums developments of the day, and their impact on the global outlooks for price and premiums. The aluminum market outlook report includes daily field intelligence and transactional premiums for P1020 ingot, billet, PFA (A356.2), wire rod, slab, high purity and o -grade metal, in different countries and regions of the world.

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LATEST ISSUE: October 11, 2024

LME price extends bounce; MW premium quotes impacted by scrap tightness

LME Cash aluminum fell in weekly terms by $28 per mton or 1.1%. Prices continued to …

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B. Forecasts and Latest on Premiums (weekly)

REPORT DESCRIPTION

An executive summary of the most important global aluminum product premiums developments of the week. The report provides HARBORʼs relevant intelligence, premium assessment, and outlook on the P1020 (MW, Rotterdam, and MJP), billet, slab, foundry, purity, and off-grade market trends across the globe.

LATEST ISSUE: October 2, 2024

Forecasts Latest Aluminum Premiums Around the World (October 2, 2024)

Early Q4 contracts fall to spot levels amid an oversupply of billet units and still …

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C. Alerts & Special Analysis On Latest/Exclusive Aluminum Market And Product Premiums Intel (several per week)

REPORT DESCRIPTION

On-time, expert intelligence analysis of any key development occurring across the aluminum value chain. These alerts will provide you with time-sensitive actionable intelligence on key industry and market trends, price movements and outlook, and premium activity across the globe. Alerts are segmented by region, type of material, industry sector and market segments, warning specific stakeholders in specific areas of the aluminum value chain. HARBOR’s Aluminum App send users a timely signal when any alert has been released.

LATEST ISSUE: January 18, 2024

LME price down 10% so far 2024; European premiums rising on Red Sea issues

China’s aluminum prices down to interim technical support zone, falling by… % s …

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D. European Billet Market Updates And Alerts (weekly)

REPORT DESCRIPTION

Expert analysis on the European Billet market by relevant country. Offering intelligence, unparalleled insight and detailed visibility into billet premiums by country and by type of supplier, transactional activity, trade flows, key demand drivers and market trends. The report distills key market commentary and field intelligence to provide actionable intelligence to stakeholders in the different European billet markets. Spanish and Italian versions available.

LATEST ISSUE: January 19, 2024

LME price falls 2.2% w/w; European billet premium supported by Red Sea turmoil

LME prices down 2.2% or $… per mton w/w as technical momentum remains bearish. Ch …

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A.North America Aluminum Rolled Products Intel Report (monthly)

REPORT DESCRIPTION

Expert analysis on the North American aluminum flat products market (common alloy sheet, can sheet, auto sheet & foil). Offering intelligence and insight into prices, imports, key demand drivers and market trends. The report distills market commentary and field intelligence on aluminum, scrap, and end markets (B&C, auto, packaging) to provide actionable intelligence to stakeholders in the aluminum flat products market field.

LATEST ISSUE: September 20, 2024

BACK TO NORMAL. Cansheet Market Dynamics Normalize, China & UBC Hot Topics

After a difficult 2023, the North American cansheet market seems to have normalized …

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A. US & Mexico Aluminum Scrap Market Intel Report (weekly)

REPORT DESCRIPTION

Expert insight and market intelligence on Mexico and US scrap and secondary aluminum markets. This report offers exclusive market talk, real transactional activity and unparalleled market price intelligence.

LATEST ISSUE: October 7, 2024

US & Mexico Weekly Scrap Report (October 7, 2024)

US prices for domestic zorba have inched up over the past few weeks in reaction to …

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B. European Secondary and Scrap Aluminum Intelligence (weekly)

REPORT DESCRIPTION

Expert insight and market intelligence on Europeś secondary and scrap aluminum markets by relevant country and their interaction with the major regional hubs like North America and Asia. This report offers exclusive market talk, real transactional activity and unparalleled market price intelligence.

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LATEST ISSUE: October 7, 2024

Europe Scrap Intelligence Report (October 7, 2024)

TIGHTNESS CONTINUES: UBC discounts widen marginally despite higher LME prices …

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A. Alumina & Bauxite Intelligence (monthly)

REPORT DESCRIPTION

In-depth analysis of the bauxite and alumina industries. Intelligence on bauxite reserves, bauxite/alumina production, output costs, trade flows, demand, and prices—both globally and regionally.

LATEST ISSUE: December 18, 2024

SURPLUS FINALLY EMERGING? World alumina market surplus to emerge in Q4 and widen in 2025

We expect alumina prices to fall further and toward $… per mton in 2025. …

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A. Aluminum Smelting Cost Curve (quarterly)

REPORT DESCRIPTION

Contains detailed cost analysis for each of the more than 250 smelters in the world. Also, cost calculations after casting, realized pricing, and actual profitability, considering the cast house mix for each smelter. HARBOR leverages its high-level contacts in the industry and agents in the field to produce this report.

LATEST ISSUE: April 19, 2023

LME prices above $… per mton seen as unsustainable for now; US extrusion demand contraction pressuring supply chain

NOTE: Q1 2023 report will be issued in the first half April 2023. …

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B. Alumina Refining Cost Curve (quarterly)

REPORT DESCRIPTION

Contains the most recent in-depth intelligence on industry production economics for each alumina refinery in the world. HARBOR leverages its high-level contacts in the industry, special relationships with refineries and agents in the field to produce this report.

LATEST ISSUE: April 19, 2023

LME prices above $… per mton seen as unsustainable for now; US extrusion demand contraction pressuring supply chain

NOTE: Q1 2023 report will be issued in the first half April 2023. …

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C. Bauxite Mining Cost Curve (quarterly)

REPORT DESCRIPTION

Get the latest intelligence on industry production economics for each bauxite mine in the world. It allows you to efficiently sort data by mine, company, country and opex and capex cost category.

LATEST ISSUE: April 19, 2023

LME prices above $… per mton seen as unsustainable for now; US extrusion demand contraction pressuring supply chain

NOTE: Q1 2023 report will be issued in the first half April 2023. …

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Stay ahead of the curve

Aluminum Industry Outlook on the Global Market

The major sectors of the global aluminum market are broken down across several different industries. The three industries that dominate the majority of global aluminum demand include:

  • Packaging: The rise of processed food and beverages in developing countries is increasing rapidly. As a result, the need for aluminum packaging is growing. In this area, aluminum faces competition from plastic and glass.
  • Automotive: Aluminum is a major player in the automotive world, as manufacturers look to replace steel with aluminum whenever possible. Aluminum is much more lightweight and can dramatically increase fuel economy.
  • Construction: Which country uses the most aluminum? The major demand for aluminum comes from China, which ran a major aluminum trade surplus about eight years ago. China is responsible for about 60 percent of world demand for aluminum, mostly for construction.

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The Leaders Of The Aluminum Industry

The aluminum industry is our focus. From bauxite to primary aluminum to aluminum semis to scrap. In the Americas, Europe, Middle East and Asia. This is why we serve all major aluminum players up and down the supply chain. For more information or enquires, contact our team today.

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