January 15, 2024
Executive Summary
1. LME prices remain in a bearish range-trading pattern. Aluminum prices are experiencing the worst start of a year in over three decades, falling by…
2. Moreover, LME prices continue to look high relative to key cost metrics. The highest-cost decile of the world’s smelting cost curve stands currently at $…
3. HARBOR continues to see LME prices falling below $… per mton in 2024. A medium-term technical downward trend remains in place targeting the $…
4. We continue to expect LME Cash aluminum prices to average around $… per mton in 2024. HARBOR’s base forecast for 2024 remains somewhat bearish relative to the Consensus view, which expects $…