MARKET OUTLOOK & ALUMINUM price forecasts

HARBOR offers a clear and candid qualitative and quantitative description of the competitive landscape of the aluminum industry and its various markets. We provide our clients with valuable intelligence and data on the forces and players that move the aluminum industry, as well as detailed aluminum price and industry forecasts. Whether you are an aluminum end-user, producer, merchant, investor or regulator; our industry data, market insight, outlook and forecasts will provide you with a strategic edge on the aluminum market.

  •    1. ALUMINUM INTELLIGENCE (MONTHLY)

    A. Aluminum Intelligence (monthly)

    REPORT DESCRIPTION

    An executive analysis of the aluminum industry's landscape and insight into who and what is driving the market. We identify the most relevant market trends to expect, while also providing detailed forecasts for price, demand, supply, production costs and market balance, per country, for up to 5 years.

    latEST  issue  -  November 7, 2017

    World's Market Surplus to Widen Unless a Meaningful Price Correction Kicks In

    B. Aluminum Production Intelligence (monthly)

    REPORT DESCRIPTION

    Detailed analysis on global monthly primary aluminum production trends and figures—broken down by region, key countries, and key smelters. It provides updated intel on who is expanding, cutting, delaying or suffering disruption in production, why these moves are being made, and what to expect. Find valuable data on output, capacity utilization and production costs.

    latEST  issue  -  October 30, 2017

    China's Production Run-Rate Higher than Expected; ROW's Production Growth to Triple in 2018

    Global primary aluminum demand growth expected to...

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    China’s primary aluminum production still expected to...

     

     

     

     

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  •    2. ALUMINUM PRICE OUTLOOK (MONTHLY)

    A. Aluminum LME Price Outlook (monthly)

    REPORT DESCRIPTION

    Special report that analyzes the outlook for LME aluminum prices. Identifies the most relevant price drivers, includes different views circulating in the market, and provides detailed monthly, quarterly and annual LME aluminum price forecasts, by the most accurate analysts, for up to 5 years under different scenarios.

    latEST  issue  - NOVEMBER 10, 2017

    B. Aluminum Strategic Buying Signals (occasional)

    REPORT DESCRIPTION

    A one-page report with the most relevant intelligence to evaluate the attractiveness of locking in LME aluminum prices at a given point in time. It will help you assess price value, buying risks, and timing to execute.

    latEST  issue  -  OCTober 8, 2014

    Speculation: King of the LME Aluminum Price

    LME prices failed to conquer the $2,200 per mton threshold but are still up 24% ytd...

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    HARBOR’s Model Signals...

    HARBOR’s model suggests locking inat least half of open metal needs as...

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  •    3. ALUMINUM REGIONAL PREMIUMS (DAILY)

    A. Daily Aluminum LME & Premiums Intel (includes Alerts)

    REPORT DESCRIPTION

    An executive analysis of the most significant aluminum industry, market, price and premiums developments of the day, and their impact on the outlooks for price and premiums. The report includes daily field intelligence and transactional aluminum premiums for P1020 ingot, billet, PFA (A356.2), wire rod, slab, high purity and off-grade metal, in different countries and regions of the world.

    B. Weekly Aluminum Premiums Summary

    REPORT DESCRIPTION

    An executive, in-a-nutshell summary of the most significant world’s aluminum premiums developments of the week. The report provides HARBOR’s relevant intelligence, premium assessment movements and analysis by region, including 1020, purity and VAP premiums.

    latEST  issue  -  November 15, 2017

    Aluminum Alert

    LME and SHFE prices regain some of yesterday’s losses as winter season starts in China; Asian P1020 spot premiums...; Tom-Next backwardation emerges...

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    C. Aluminum Premiums Outlook

    (every semester)

    REPORT DESCRIPTION

    Executive report with the latest intelligence, analysis, outlook and forecasts on aluminum ingot and billet premiums around the globe. Gives you quarterly premiums forecasts for each region and a trade map to better identify sourcing/selling opportunities and premiums risks.

    latEST  issue  -  november 30, 2016

    World’s Aluminum Products Premium Compendium (2H 2016)

    Aluminum Product Premiums Collapsed in 2016 as Expected, What About 2017?

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    latEST  issue  - NOVEMBER 6, 2017

    What is the Latest on Aluminum Premiums?

    HARBOR's spot P1020 premium between suppliers...

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  •    4. SCRAP & SECONDARY ALUMINUM (WEEKLY)

    A. Mexico & US Aluminum Scrap Intel (weekly)

    REPORT DESCRIPTION

    Expert insight and market intelligence on Mexico and US scrap and secondary aluminum markets. This report offers exclusive market talk, real transactional activity and unparalleled market price intelligence.

    B. North America Scrap Lights (monthly)

    REPORT DESCRIPTION

    Expert commentary on Mexico and US scrap and secondary aluminum markets. Report offers expert insight on underlying market trends, commentary on transactional activity and what to expect looking forward. This report provides a tactical edge to stakeholders in the market.

    latEST  issue  -  NOVEMBER  9, 2017

    USA & Mexican Market Commentary

    USA: Opposite trends: NASAAC prices down to three-month lows, journalistic prices move up... | Mexico: Clean 6063 extrusion scrap prices up due to rising exports and buying in the Jalisco hub...

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    latEST  issue  - October 31, 2017

    US: Aluminum Scrap with Fewer Consumers... | Mexico: Upward Pressure on Alloy Ingot Prices...

    US: We see an interesting direction taking place in the scrap world... | Mexico: As anticipated, more annual A380 deals for 2018 have been concluded at a premium over journalistic references...

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  •    5. ALUMINA & BAUXITE INTELLIGENCE (MONTHLY)

    A. Alumina & Bauxite Intelligence (monthly)

    REPORT DESCRIPTION

    In-depth analysis of the bauxite and alumina industries. Intelligence on bauxite reserves, bauxite/alumina production, output costs, trade flows, demand, and prices — both globally and regionally.

    latEST  issue  -   NOVEMBER 3, 2017

    More Winter Curtailments Confirmed in China; We See a Price Correction After Winter

    China announces additional alumina winter curtailments (Shanxi province) that would...

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  •    6. COST CURVE INTELLIGENCE (QUARTERLY)

    A. Aluminum Smelting Cost Curve (quarterly)

    REPORT DESCRIPTION

    Contains detailed cost analysis for each of the more than 250 smelters in the world. Also, cost calculations after casting, realized pricing, and actual profitability, considering the cast house mix for each smelter. HARBOR leverages its high level contacts in the industry and agents in the field to produce this report.

    B. Alumina Refining Cost Curve (quarterly)

    REPORT DESCRIPTION

    Contains the most recent in-depth intelligence on industry production economics for each alumina refinery in the world. HARBOR leverages its high level contacts in the industry, special relationships with refineries and agents in the field to produce this report.

    latEST  issue  - OCTOBER 17, 2017

    Aluminum Smelting Cost Curve Report (Data for Q3 2017)

    Global primary aluminum production cash costs are up to a three-year high... In October, global average smelting cash cost reached a 35-month high... Prices for carbon products have also continued to rebound as China’s  government is also taking stronger action in closing, temporarily shutting, or requiring environmental controls at calciners and anode plants. Nevertheless, more than 95% of primary aluminum global operating capacity continues to make money. In ROW, less than 0.3 million mtpy of capacity operated underwater in October as the average cash profit stood at 24% (nearly a six-year high). In China, there were 5 million mton estimated operating underwater (from 2 million mton a month earlier) but the average cash margin stood at 15%, still well above the year-to-date average of 10%...

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    C. Bauxite Mining Cost Curve (quarterly)

    REPORT DESCRIPTION

    Get the latest intelligence on industry production economics for each bauxite mine in the world. It allows you to efficiently sort data by mine, company, country and opex and capex cost category.

    lastEST  issue  - OCTOBER 17, 2017

    HARBOR estimates that global average bauxite production cash costs decreased 2% Q/Q in Q2 2017 as lower materials costs offset an increase in energy costs. Global bauxite production cash costs stand at $12.8 per mton, 2% higher than a year ago...

    Bauxite Mining Cost Curve Report (Data for Q3 2017)

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    latEST  issue  - OCTOBER 17, 2017

    Alumina Refining Cost Curve Report (Data for Q3 2017)

    HARBOR estimates that in October, the average world  metallurgical alumina cash cost of production increased 3% m/m, to $278 per mton, the highest since July 2014. Production cash costs are 15% higher than a year ago.


    Costs have remained high mainly amid energy (coal prices in China) and caustic soda costs.


    HARBOR estimates that 100% of the global industry is cash profitable at today’s prices of $420 per mton; 98% of capacity covers total costs vs 78% the prior month...

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June 5-7, 2018

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