MARKET OUTLOOK & ALUMINUM price forecasts

HARBOR offers a clear and candid qualitative and quantitative description of the competitive landscape of the aluminum industry and its various markets. We provide our clients with valuable intelligence and data on the forces and players that move the aluminum industry, as well as detailed aluminum price and industry forecasts. Whether you are an aluminum end-user, producer, merchant, investor or regulator; our industry data, market insight, outlook and forecasts will provide you with a strategic edge on the aluminum market.

  •    1. ALUMINUM INTELLIGENCE (MONTHLY)

    A. Aluminum Intelligence (monthly)

    REPORT DESCRIPTION

    An executive analysis of the aluminum industry's landscape and insight into who and what is driving the market. We identify the most relevant market trends to expect, while also providing detailed forecasts for price, demand, supply, production costs and market balance, per country, for up to 5 years.

    latEST  issue  -  MAY 22, 2018

    New LME price downward leg toward $2,000 per mton could be unleashed tomorrow

    B. Aluminum Production Intelligence (monthly)

    REPORT DESCRIPTION

    Detailed analysis on global monthly primary aluminum production trends and figures—broken down by region, key countries, and key smelters. It provides updated intel on who is expanding, cutting, delaying or suffering disruption in production, why these moves are being made, and what to expect. Find valuable data on output, capacity utilization and production costs.

    latEST  issue  -  MAY 31, 2018

    ROW's Production Growth Pace to More-Than-Double in 2018 and Again in 2019

    On April 6, the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) imposed sanctions on seven Russian individuals and twelve companies they control, including...

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    In April, global primary aluminum production was practically stalled in both monthly and annual terms...

     

     

     

     

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  •    2. ALUMINUM PRICE OUTLOOK (MONTHLY)

    A. Aluminum LME Price Outlook (monthly)

    REPORT DESCRIPTION

    Special report that analyzes the outlook for LME aluminum prices. Identifies the most relevant price drivers, includes different views circulating in the market, and provides detailed monthly, quarterly and annual LME aluminum price forecasts, by the most accurate analysts, for up to 5 years under different scenarios.

    latEST  issue  - June 20, 2018

    B. Aluminum Strategic Buying Signals (occasional)

    REPORT DESCRIPTION

    A one-page report with the most relevant intelligence to evaluate the attractiveness of locking in LME aluminum prices at a given point in time. It will help you assess price value, buying risks, and timing to execute.

    latEST  issue  -  OCTober 8, 2014

    LME Prices Expected to Remain in Correction Mode

    LME aluminum prices remain in correction mode amid expectations of sanctions relief and a deteriorating outlook...

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    HARBOR’s Model Signals...

    HARBOR’s model suggests locking inat least half of open metal needs as...

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  •    3. ALUMINUM REGIONAL PREMIUMS (DAILY)

    A. Daily Aluminum LME & Premiums Intel

         (includes Alerts)

    REPORT DESCRIPTION

    An executive analysis of the most significant aluminum industry, market, price and premiums developments of the day, and their impact on the outlooks for price and premiums. The report includes daily field intelligence and transactional aluminum premiums for P1020 ingot, billet, PFA (A356.2), wire rod, slab, high purity and off-grade metal, in different countries and regions of the world.

    B. Weekly Aluminum Premiums Summary

    REPORT DESCRIPTION

    An executive, in-a-nutshell summary of the most significant world’s aluminum premiums developments of the week. The report provides HARBOR’s relevant intelligence, premium assessment movements and analysis by region, including 1020, purity and VAP premiums.

    latEST  issue  -  JUNE 25, 2018

    Daily Aluminum Commentary

    New LME price downward leg toward... per mton could be unleashed tomorrow; China’s aluminum prices fall to new... , continue to test our identified target. 

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    C. Aluminum Premiums Outlook

    (every semester)

    REPORT DESCRIPTION

    Executive report with the latest intelligence, analysis, outlook and forecasts on aluminum ingot and billet premiums around the globe. Gives you quarterly premiums forecasts for each region and a trade map to better identify sourcing/selling opportunities and premiums risks.

    latEST  issue  -  november 27, 2017

    Aluminum Premiums Landscape & 2018 Outlook - World Compendium

    World Aluminum Premiums in 2018...

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    latEST  issue  - June 18, 2018

    What is the Latest on Aluminum Premiums?

    HARBOR’s MW P1020 Ingot Duty-Paid Consumer-Supplier Premium falls on the low end to... cent/lb amid a confluence of factors...

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  •    4. SCRAP & SECONDARY ALUMINUM (WEEKLY)

    A. Mexico & US Aluminum Scrap Intel (weekly)

    REPORT DESCRIPTION

    Expert insight and market intelligence on Mexico and US scrap and secondary aluminum markets. This report offers exclusive market talk, real transactional activity and unparalleled market price intelligence.

    B. North America Scrap Lights (monthly)

    REPORT DESCRIPTION

    Expert commentary on Mexico and US scrap and secondary aluminum markets. Report offers expert insight on underlying market trends, commentary on transactional activity and what to expect looking forward. This report provides a tactical edge to stakeholders in the market.

    latEST  issue  - JUNE 21, 2018

    USA & Mexican Market Commentary

    Wide spread between NASAAC and journalistic 380 references pressuring down alloy ingot prices.

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    latEST  issue  -  MAY 31, 2018

    US: New Innovations are Needed in Using Scrap...| Mexico: VAT-retained Payments on Secondary Scrap to Become Mainstream Next Month.

    6063 clean scrap prices now rising considerably at the consumer level...| Transition to a VAT-retained payment basis on obsolete scrap to accelerate in June.

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  •    5. ALUMINA & BAUXITE INTELLIGENCE (MONTHLY)

    A. Alumina & Bauxite Intelligence (monthly)

    REPORT DESCRIPTION

    In-depth analysis of the bauxite and alumina industries. Intelligence on bauxite reserves, bauxite/alumina production, output costs, trade flows, demand, and prices — both globally and regionally.

    latEST  issue  -   JUNE 6, 2018

    Fundamentals Suggest Alumina Price Correction is Not Over Yet

    Alumina price correction continues as prices have erased gains from the rally that took place after the US placed sanctions against...

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  •    6. COST CURVE INTELLIGENCE (QUARTERLY)

    A. Aluminum Smelting Cost Curve (quarterly)

    REPORT DESCRIPTION

    Contains detailed cost analysis for each of the more than 250 smelters in the world. Also, cost calculations after casting, realized pricing, and actual profitability, considering the cast house mix for each smelter. HARBOR leverages its high level contacts in the industry and agents in the field to produce this report.

    B. Alumina Refining Cost Curve (quarterly)

    REPORT DESCRIPTION

    Contains the most recent in-depth intelligence on industry production economics for each alumina refinery in the world. HARBOR leverages its high level contacts in the industry, special relationships with refineries and agents in the field to produce this report.

    latEST  issue  - January 17, 2018

    Aluminum Smelting Cost Curve Report (Data for Q4 2017)

    Global primary aluminum production cash costs have continued to increase and reached in January the highest level in almost five year. In January, global average smelting cash cost reached a 58-month high of $1,782 per mton, up 6% m/m, to their highest level since March 2013. Production costs have continued to increase mainly on the back of high carbon product prices, and energy costs (coal prices in China and spot electricity prices in Europe and the USA.
     
    Nevertheless, 87% of primary aluminum global operating capacity continues to make money. In ROW, 1.4 million mtpy of capacity operated underwater in January as the average cash profit stood at 24% (nearly a six-year high)....

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    C. Bauxite Mining Cost Curve (quarterly)

    REPORT DESCRIPTION

    Get the latest intelligence on industry production economics for each bauxite mine in the world. It allows you to efficiently sort data by mine, company, country and opex and capex cost category.

    lastEST  issue  - january 17, 2018

    HARBOR estimates that global average bauxite production cash costs decreased 4% Q/Q in Q4 2017 as a result of higher energy and material prices. Global bauxite production cash costs stand at $13.4 per mton, 4% higher than a year ago...

    Bauxite Mining Cost Curve Report (Data for Q4 2017)

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    latEST  issue  - January 17, 2018

    Alumina Refining Cost Curve Report (Data for Q4 2017)

    HARBOR estimates that in January, the average world  metallurgical alumina cash cost of production decreased 1% m/m, to $292 per mton. Production cash costs are 14% higher than a year ago, the slowest annual pace increase in the last 18 months.
     
    Production costs are slightly down from a 5-year high reached in November mostly as caustic soda prices have decreased slightly. HARBOR estimates that 94% of the global industry is cash profitable at today’s prices of $389 per mton; 62% of capacity covers total costs vs 65% the prior month...

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June 5-7, 2018

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