MARKET OUTLOOK & ALUMINUM price forecasts

HARBOR offers a clear and candid qualitative and quantitative description of the competitive landscape of the aluminum industry and its various markets. We provide our clients with valuable intelligence and data on the forces and players that move the aluminum industry, as well as detailed aluminum price and industry forecasts. Whether you are an aluminum end-user, producer, merchant, investor or regulator; our industry data, market insight, outlook and forecasts will provide you with a strategic edge on the aluminum market.

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  •    1. ALUMINUM INTELLIGENCE (MONTHLY)

    A. Aluminum Intelligence (monthly)

    REPORT DESCRIPTION

    An executive analysis of the aluminum industry's landscape and insight into who and what is driving the market. We identify the most relevant market trends to expect, while also providing detailed forecasts for price, demand, supply, production costs and market balance, per country, for up to 5 years.

    latEST  issue  -  may 1, 2017

    Global Aluminum Production to Expand at Record Pace, Oversupply to Increase

    In Q1 2017, world primary aluminum demand grew 5.3% y/y (from 4.5% in Q4 2016) as both China (up 7.5%) and ROW (up 3.2%) experienced faster growth rates...

     

     

    B. Aluminum Production Intelligence (monthly)

    REPORT DESCRIPTION

    Detailed analysis on global monthly primary aluminum production trends and figures—broken down by region, key countries, and key smelters. It provides updated intel on who is expanding, cutting, delaying or suffering disruption in production, why these moves are being made, and what to expect. Find valuable data on output, capacity utilization and production costs.

    latEST  issue  -  may 24, 2017

    World Primary Production at Fresh Record Highs; 5 Smelters Considering Restarting Capacity in the US

    World primary aluminum production reached a record high in April on the back of strong China growth...

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  •    2. ALUMINUM PRICE OUTLOOK (MONTHLY)

    A. Aluminum LME Price Outlook (monthly)

    REPORT DESCRIPTION

    Special report that analyzes the outlook for LME aluminum prices. Identifies the most relevant price drivers, includes different views circulating in the market, and provides detailed monthly, quarterly and annual LME aluminum price forecasts, by the most accurate analysts, for up to 5 years under different scenarios.

    latEST  issue  -  may 9, 2017

    B. Aluminum Strategic Buying Signals (occasional)

    REPORT DESCRIPTION

    A one-page report with the most relevant intelligence to evaluate the attractiveness of locking in LME aluminum prices at a given point in time. It will help you assess price value, buying risks, and timing to execute.

    latEST  issue  -  OCTober 8, 2014

    High Aluminum Prices Out of Synch with Fundamentals & Outlook

    After hitting a near two-year high of $1,981 per mton on March 30, LME aluminum prices have...

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    HARBOR’s Model Signals...

    HARBOR’s model suggests locking inat least half of open metal needs as...

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  •    3. ALUMINUM REGIONAL PREMIUMS (DAILY)

    A. Daily Aluminum LME & Premiums Intel (includes Alerts)

    REPORT DESCRIPTION

    An executive analysis of the most significant aluminum industry, market, price and premiums developments of the day, and their impact on the outlooks for price and premiums. The report includes daily field intelligence and transactional aluminum premiums for P1020 ingot, billet, PFA (A356.2), wire rod, slab, high purity and off-grade metal, in different countries and regions of the world.

    B. Aluminum Premiums Outlook

    (every semester)

    REPORT DESCRIPTION

    Executive report with the latest intelligence, analysis, outlook and forecasts on aluminum ingot and billet premiums around the globe. Gives you quarterly premiums forecasts for each region and a trade map to better identify sourcing/selling opportunities and premiums risks.

    latEST  issue  -  May 24, 2017

    Daily Aluminum Commentary

    Chinese downstream activity picks up after environmental inspections; China's aluminum FRP exports up to new multi-year highs; LME prices resilient to disappointing economic data...

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    latEST  issue  -  november 30, 2016

    World’s Aluminum Products Premium Compendium (2H 2016)

    Aluminum Product Premiums Collapsed in 2016 as Expected, What About 2017?

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  •    4. SCRAP & SECONDARY ALUMINUM (WEEKLY)

    A. Mexico & US Aluminum Scrap Intel (weekly)

    REPORT DESCRIPTION

    Expert insight and market intelligence on Mexico and US scrap and secondary aluminum markets. This report offers exclusive market talk, real transactional activity and unparalleled market price intelligence.

    B. North America Scrap Lights (monthly)

    REPORT DESCRIPTION

    Expert commentary on Mexico and US scrap and secondary aluminum markets. Report offers expert insight on underlying market trends, commentary on transactional activity and what to expect looking forward. This report provides a tactical edge to stakeholders in the market.

    latEST  issue  -  may 26, 2017

    USA & Mexican Market Commentary

    USA: NASAAC cash prices trading below the cost of producing A380... | Mexico: Low billet premiums in Mexico could displace 6063 scrap demand...

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    latEST  issue  -  may 1, 2017

    US: A tale of 2 cities: Tight obsolete scrap vs ample supply of primary scrap | Mexico: Arbitrage opens for NASAAC units to flow into the Mexican market?

    US: We are seeing 380 alloy price moving down to... and NASAAC pricing down about... | Mexico: Mexico's secondary alloy spot demand continues to increase...

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  •    5. ALUMINA & BAUXITE INTELLIGENCE (MONTHLY)

    A. Alumina & Bauxite Intelligence (monthly)

    REPORT DESCRIPTION

    In-depth analysis of the bauxite and alumina industries. Intelligence on bauxite reserves, bauxite/alumina production, output costs, trade flows, demand, and prices — both globally and regionally.

    latEST  issue  -  may 8, 2017

    Alumina Prices Peaked and Fell as Anticipated, but May Find Support at $260-$270

    Alumina spot prices have continued to decline and reached...

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  •    6. COST CURVE INTELLIGENCE (QUARTERLY)

    A. Aluminum Smelting Cost Curve (quarterly)

    B. Alumina Refining Cost Curve (quarterly)

    REPORT DESCRIPTION

    Contains detailed cost analysis for each of the more than 250 smelters in the world. Also, cost calculations after casting, realized pricing, and actual profitability, considering the cast house mix for each smelter. HARBOR leverages its high level contacts in the industry and agents in the field to produce this report.

    latEST  issue  - april 19, 2017

    Aluminum Smelting Cost Curve Report (Data for Q1 2017)

    HARBOR estimates that the world's stood at $1,565 per mton in Q1 2017, up 7% from the previous quarter and 13% y/y. World's production costs have been pressured up by increasing costs in China amid higher energy (coal) and carbon product costs. Chinese average primary aluminum production cash cost were $1,651 per mton in Q1 2017, up 7% Q/Q and 20% y/y. Meanwhile, average primary aluminum production cash costs in ROW stand at $1,431 per mton, up 8% y/y.

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    C. Bauxite Mining Cost Curve (quarterly)

    REPORT DESCRIPTION

    Get the latest intelligence on industry production economics for each bauxite mine in the world. It allows you to efficiently sort data by mine, company, country and opex and capex cost category.

    lastEST  issue  - april 19, 2017

    HARBOR estimates that global average bauxite production costs decreased in Q4 2016 2% q/q mainly driven by higher energy cost (up 5%). Global bauxite production cash costs stand at $13.1 per mton, 11% higher than a year ago.

    Bauxite Mining Cost Curve Report (Data for Q1 2017)

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    REPORT DESCRIPTION

    Contains the most recent in-depth intelligence on industry production economics for each alumina refinery in the world. HARBOR leverages its high level contacts in the industry, special relationships with refineries and agents in the field to produce this report.

    latEST  issue  - April 19, 2017

    Alumina Refining Cost Curve Report (Data for Q1 2017)

    Global output cash costs reached in March $257 per mton, their highest level since November 2014. Cost have remained high mainly amid energy (coal prices in China) and caustic soda costs. HARBOR estimates that 60% of the global industry is cash profitable at today’s prices vs 90% the previous month; 23% of capacity covers total costs vs 60% the prior month.

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