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> aluminum industry analysis, market outlook & forecasts
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China Not Curtailing as Announced, Global Demand to Grow at Half Its Recent Rates
Abstract: Global primary aluminum production is not declining fast enough to avoid a meaningful market surplus (again). While the US primary aluminum industry continues...

Aluminum P1020 and VAP’s Premiums Fall Not Over Yet
Abstract: As anticipated by HARBOR, aluminum P1020 premiums have continued to fall in all regions of the world, and now stand at multi-year lows...

Expecting Short-Term Price Rallies, Structural Downward Pressure Should Predominate
Abstract: LME 3M aluminum prices averaged $1,482 per mton (67 cent/lb), down 1.1% m/m, but experienced a technical rally during the last...

No Major Impact Expected From Malaysia’s Bauxite Mining Suspension
Abstract: We expect no major disruption to China's aluminum supply chain, amid adequate inventory levels and amid increasing bauxite supply from other sources. HARBOR estimates that current inventories of imported bauxite in China stand at 33.1 million mton or 7.2 months of consumption (MOC). If the ban lasts 3 months, inventories would decrease to 26.8 million mton or 5.8 MOC. If the export ban were to last longer, Chinese imported bauxite inventories can offset the loss of Malaysian supply for as long as 15 months. However, to partially offset these losses, supply from Guinea, Australia, Fiji and Solomon Islands (all together) could increase by at least 0.8 million mton per month. These additional supplies would allow Chinese imported bauxite inventories to last as long as...

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