aluminum industry analysis, market outlook & forecasts
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Significant US Smelting Capacity Could Shutdown in Months Ahead
Significant odds that as much as 70% or 1.17 million mton of current US operating capacity could be curtailed or shut down within the next 12 months given plummeting all-in aluminum prices and a stronger US dollar. High purity market (P0404 or better), billet and PFA would be impacted the most by...
We Continue to Expect 7 cent/lb ($150 per mton) before the End of 2016
As anticipated by HARBOR, aluminum premiums peaked early this year and are now falling sharply. Since early February, premiums in Asia, Europe and the Americas have...
Fund Selling Intensifies on China, HARBOR Remains Bearish Terms
LME 3M aluminum prices broke below $1,600 per mton for the first time in six years…
Expecting a Well Supplied Bauxite Market Ahead, Downgrading Aa/Bx Price Forecasts
Global bauxite supply will be more than enough amid increasing production from new mines in Guinea. HARBOR is now forecasting a global theoretical bauxite production surplus for the period 2016-2019 (surplus growing from 0.6 million mton in 2016 to 7.5 million mton in 2019) mainly as a result of increasing bauxite supply from two mines in Guinea: a) China Hongqiao Group’s mine that has started to ship bauxite to China and that will ramp up to produce 5.0 million mton per year, and b) UC Rusal’s Dian Dian project that its under construction and is expected to start production in 2017 with an annual capacity of 3.0 million mton. Both mines are designed to double output in a second phase. In this same period, HARBOR forecast that...
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