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> aluminum industry analysis, market outlook & forecasts
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Industry Needs Deeper Pain for Market Balance to Return
Abstract: World primary aluminum demand growth weakest since 2009, contracting in ROW while slowing down further in China...

Aluminum P1020 and VAP’s Premiums Fall Not Over Yet
Abstract: As anticipated by HARBOR, aluminum P1020 premiums have continued to fall in all regions of the world, and now stand at multi-year lows...

Outlook Unsupportive of a Sustainable Price Rally
Abstract: LME aluminum prices fell below a key 6-year support level. LME 3M prices fell 6.2% m/m in October and below the key 6-year old support level of $1,545 per mton (70 cent/lb) on the back of...

The Outlook Is Not Bullish
Abstract: Industry data is clear to show that while China’s working-age population and economic expansion phase of 2002-2007 took place, alumina production costs, imports, profit margins, and spot prices boomed (from $130 to $620 per mton). A shift in Chinese economic policy away from building infrastructure and more toward promoting consumption, and the demographic contraction cycle that began this year, have so far produced declining alumina production costs, declining alumina imports, deteriorating profit margins, and declining spot prices. In our view, China has effectively moved from a demand-driven bullish factor for the alumina industry into...

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