aluminum industry analysis, market outlook & forecasts
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ROW’s Production Shortfall in 2015 Can Only be Avoided if Demand Contracts
Global manufacturing activity is expanding at the slowest pace in four months, mainly amid cooling growth in Europe, North Asia and Brazil...
Downward Pressure Building Up, A Gradual Fall Ahead?
Regional Aluminum Premiums Report Q2 2014
Aluminum outperforms the commodity complex on perception of positive fundamentals
In October, LME 3M aluminum prices rose by 4%, entering into a new short-term upward trend...
Spot Prices Remain High; New Projects Needed in ROW to Avoid Deficit in 2017-2019
At least 8.395 million tpy of new metallurgical alumina capacity in ROW could hit the market in the 2015-2019 period, but bauxite supply constraints and/or lack of funding has put on hold or could delay these projects. Of this total, 57% or 4.860 million tpy are in Brazil (Hydro’s 1.86 million tpy CAP refinery project that was put on hold a few years ago amid “market conditions” and Votorantim’s 3.0 million tpy Rondon refinery that is looking for financing/JV partner) and the rest or 3.535 million tpy are located in India (Anrak’s 1.5 million tpy refinery that has already been built but has not secure local bauxite supply and Vedanta’s 2.0 million tpy Lanjigarh expansion that is on hold for the same reason). At least one of these projects would be needed during this period to avoid a global production shortfall in 2017-2019.
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