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> aluminum industry analysis, market outlook & forecasts
* latest intelligence reports...
Chinese exports of semis and smelter restarts could halve expected deficit in 2015
Abstract: Global manufacturing activity (a proxy for global aluminum demand) expanded in November at its slowest pace since September 2013, mainly amid further slowdowns in Europe and...

More LME Vlissingen Cancelations Needed to Avoid Decline in Premiums During 2015
Abstract: We see P1020 aluminum premiums falling gradually in 2015 and 2016, but reaching...

Headwinds Accumulate but No Analyst Expects Lower Prices in 2015
Abstract: HARBOR's Aluminum Price Outlook - December 2014

Spot Prices Remain High; New Projects Needed in ROW to Avoid Deficit in 2017-2019
Abstract: At least 8.395 million tpy of new metallurgical alumina capacity in ROW could hit the market in the 2015-2019 period, but bauxite supply constraints and/or lack of funding has put on hold or could delay these projects. Of this total, 57% or 4.860 million tpy are in Brazil (Hydro’s 1.86 million tpy CAP refinery project that was put on hold a few years ago amid “market conditions” and Votorantim’s 3.0 million tpy Rondon refinery that is looking for financing/JV partner) and the rest or 3.535 million tpy are located in India (Anrak’s 1.5 million tpy refinery that has already been built but has not secure local bauxite supply and Vedanta’s 2.0 million tpy Lanjigarh expansion that is on hold for the same reason). At least one of these projects would be needed during this period to avoid a global production shortfall in 2017-2019.

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