aluminum industry analysis, market outlook & forecasts
latest intelligence reports...
Significant US Smelting Capacity Could Shutdown in Months Ahead
Significant odds that as much as 70% or 1.17 million mton of current US operating capacity could be curtailed or shut down within the next 12 months given plummeting all-in aluminum prices and a stronger US dollar. High purity market (P0404 or better), billet and PFA would be impacted the most by...
Aluminum P1020 and VAP’s Premiums Fall Not Over Yet
As anticipated by HARBOR, aluminum P1020 premiums have continued to fall in all regions of the world, and now stand at multi-year lows...
Bearish Outlook Remains as Fundamentals Continue to Weaken
LME aluminum prices experienced during September a bearish rally… The rally occurred in a context of: A) Weak trading volume, B)...
Lower Metal and AA Prices Expected To Impact Alumina Demand and Production
Profitability for alumina producers in ROW has deteriorated lately as spot prices have continued to decline to fresh 6-year lows. HARBOR estimates that, at current Australia alumina spot prices of $278 per mton,13% of ROW’s capacity would be losing money on a cash cost basis vs 7% a month ago. This capacity that amounts 6.5 million mton is located mainly in Europe (74% of total) with the rest in Asia. Additionally, 27% of ROW’s capacity cannot cover their total cost of production (operating cost + interest payments, depreciation and working capital), compared to...
*click here to view all of our reports